3
Fallon
6yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 75
Sha Tin · Mesia Handicap · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Sha Tin | BHA77 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Happy Valley | 3 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Sha Tin | BHA80 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Sha Tin | BHA80 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Sha Tin | BHA80 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1579% of fieldRange 4-15 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength39%
Delivery trend +3.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/12/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 36% | -0.00 |
| 23/12/2025 | 9th | 17/2 | 55% | 27% | -0.28 |
| 21/01/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 11/03/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 06/04/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 03/05/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 24/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 10/06/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 36% | -0.00 |
| 21/06/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |