5
Flying Luck
6yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 70
Sha Tin · Mesia Handicap · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: BHA50
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Sha Tin | BHA74 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Sha Tin | BHA74 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Sha Tin | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-01-25 | Sha Tin | BHA67 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Sha Tin | BHA67 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1536% of fieldRange 5-15 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength3%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/04/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 82% | +0.34 |
| 31/05/2025 | 5th | 13/8 | 91% | 69% | -0.22 |
| 01/07/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 92% | +0.08 |
| 28/09/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 46% | -0.06 |
| 25/01/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 22/02/2026 | 13th | 16/1 | 16% | 8% | -0.08 |
| 12/04/2026 | 12th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 03/05/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 13/05/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 38% | -0.20 |