2
Mister Dapper
7yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 76
Sha Tin · Mesia Handicap · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Sha Tin | BHA77 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Happy Valley | 2 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Sha Tin | BHA78 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Sha Tin | BHA77 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Happy Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1557% of fieldRange 1-15 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength32%
Delivery trend -4.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 14/12/2025 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 92% | +0.50 |
| 11/01/2026 | 11th | 6/1 | 68% | 23% | -0.45 |
| 11/02/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 11/03/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 45% | +0.09 |
| 12/04/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |
| 09/05/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 31% | -0.17 |
| 03/06/2026 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 27% | -0.33 |
| 12/07/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |