8
Packing Fighter
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 67
Sha Tin · Mesia Handicap · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
10/11
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: BHA57
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Sha Tin | BHA59 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Sha Tin | BHA57 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Sha Tin | BHA59 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Sha Tin | BHA63 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1593% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength90%
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/01/2026 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 15% | -0.00 |
| 08/02/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 01/03/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 22/03/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 01/04/2026 | 11th | 6/1 | 68% | 23% | -0.45 |
| 22/04/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 55% | +0.28 |
| 17/05/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 69% | +0.03 |
| 21/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 92% | +0.03 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |