11
Shamus Storm
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 64
Sha Tin · Mesia Handicap · 1m
#11
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Sha Tin | BHA65 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Happy Valley | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Sha Tin | BHA66 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Sha Tin | BHA66 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Sha Tin | BHA60 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Sha Tin | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 157% of fieldRange 13-15 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -9.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 62% | +0.35 |
| 08/02/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 69% | -0.02 |
| 22/02/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 62% | +0.56 |
| 08/03/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 54% | -0.12 |
| 22/03/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 26/04/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 62% | +0.09 |
| 03/05/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 10/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 64% | -0.05 |
| 21/06/2026 | 12th | 4/1 | 79% | 8% | -0.71 |