4
Solid Win
6yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 75
Sha Tin · Mesia Handicap · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: BHA51
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Happy Valley | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-28 | Happy Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1543% of fieldRange 5-15 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength17%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/11/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 55% | -0.27 |
| 10/12/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 27% | +0.01 |
| 07/01/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 28/01/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 45% | +0.19 |
| 25/02/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 25/03/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 73% | -0.04 |
| 29/04/2026 | 11th | 9/2 | 76% | 9% | -0.67 |
| 27/05/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 09/09/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 64% | -0.05 |