4
Frangipani
4yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 78
Turffontein · Play Soccer 6, 10 And 13 Fm 91 Divided Handicap (F & M) · 1m 209y
#2
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
67%
Place Prob
49%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength51%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Vaal | ? | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Vaal | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Turffontein | ? | 1st | 0th | +0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Turffontein | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Greyville | ? | 9th | 3rd | +5 |
| 2026-03-28 | Vaal | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength79%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 07/02/2026 | 12th | 66/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 07/03/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 28/03/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 11% | -0.36 |
| 02/05/2026 | 9th | 150/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 11/06/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 10/09/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |