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3

Merryweather

4yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 77

Turffontein · Play Soccer 6, 10 And 13 Fm 91 Divided Handicap (F & M) · 1m 209y

#1

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

30%

Place Prob

33%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

2 wins from 5 runs this year. Career best when winning 10-runner handicap at this course (8f, good, 9/2) 50 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength81%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.3
Today:
Class gap: +2.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Turffontein 10/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 12310/07C8C8 @ Turffontein 28/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 122C6 @ Turffontein 30/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 7f46y Gd 12030/10C6C1 @ Turffontein 29/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR - · 7f210y GS 130 · HIGHER CLASSC8 @ Turffontein 01/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 1191/01C8C0 @ Turffontein 07/02/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASSC0 @ Turffontein 07/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 1m209y GS 132 · HIGHER CLASS7/03C?C5 @ Vaal 02/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASSC6 @ Turffontein 08/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 1288/08C6projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-08Turffontein?1st1st−0
2026-07-02Vaal?4th4th+0
2026-03-07Turffontein?10th4th+5
2026-02-07Turffontein?13th7th+5
2026-01-01Turffontein?1st3rd−2
2025-11-29Turffontein?3rd-3th+5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0729/117/038/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength98%

Delivery trend +0.2% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/07/20251st6/594%100%+0.06
28/09/20253rd8/158%60%+0.02
30/10/20253rd4/596%75%-0.21
29/11/20253rd40/10%86%+0.86
01/01/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
07/02/202613th50/10%8%+0.08
07/03/202610th40/10%0%0.00
02/07/20264th7/163%63%-0.01
08/08/20261st4/179%100%+0.21