Surprise Party
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 72
Turffontein · Play Soccer 6, 10 And 13 Fm 91 Divided Handicap (F & M) · 1m 209y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Vaal | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Vaal | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-30 | Vaal | ? | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Turffontein | ? | 7th | 1st | +5 |
| 2026-06-11 | Turffontein | ? | 2nd | 2nd | +0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Vaal | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.1% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 05/02/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 13% | -0.56 |
| 26/03/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 63% | -0.27 |
| 14/05/2026 | 9th | 17/2 | 55% | 38% | -0.17 |
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 86% | +0.80 |
| 05/07/2026 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |
| 13/08/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 71% | +0.16 |
| 10/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |