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Chariklo

4yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 71

Turffontein · Tab Telebet 011 074 0300 Fm 72 Divided Handicap (F & M) · 1m 209y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

37%

Place Prob

33%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winner at Vaal in April. Good second of 9 in handicap at Vaal (9.9f, good, 7/1) 59 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Turffontein 09/11/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 5f169y GS 1309/11C8C8 @ Turffontein 04/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 6f211y GS 130C8 @ Vaal 27/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 7f46y Gd 13027/01C8C8 @ Turffontein 19/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 132C8 @ Turffontein 21/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 13221/03C8C8 @ Vaal 21/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 1m209y GS 132C6 @ Vaal 14/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR - · 1m209y Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASS14/05C6C6 @ Vaal 18/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 1m99y Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Vaal 30/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 1m1f208y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS30/07C7projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-30Vaal?2nd2nd+0
2026-06-18Vaal?2nd2nd+0
2026-05-14Vaal?7th7th+0
2026-04-21Vaal?1st3rd−1
2026-03-21Turffontein?2nd4th−1
2026-02-19Turffontein?8th10th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/1119/0214/0530/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/11/202510th25/10%0%0.00
04/12/20255th28/10%56%+0.56
27/01/20268th16/116%36%+0.21
19/02/20268th33/10%13%+0.13
21/03/20262nd33/10%75%+0.75
21/04/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
14/05/20267th20/10%54%+0.54
18/06/20262nd20/10%89%+0.89
30/07/20262nd6/168%88%+0.19