7
Elisa Mbali
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 62
Turffontein · Tab Telebet 011 074 0300 Fm 72 Divided Handicap (F & M) · 1m 209y
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Turffontein | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-27 | Vaal | ? | 4th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Vaal | ? | 2nd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Turffontein | ? | 3rd | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Vaal | ? | 8th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Durbanville | ? | 6th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength52%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/12/2025 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 21/01/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 14/02/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 30% | -0.38 |
| 21/03/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 38% | -0.36 |
| 28/05/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 46% | -0.01 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 82% | +0.19 |
| 06/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 27/08/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 12/09/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |