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Tara Star

6yo Mare · 9-6 · OR 87

Turffontein · www.tab.co.za Fm 98 Divided Handicap (F & M) · 5f 212y

#4

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Respectable second of 9 in minor event at Scottsville (6f, good, 25/2) 60 days ago. First run for yard after leaving D. W. Moore.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength70%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.4
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Greyville 19/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 5f212y GS 122 · HIGHER CLASS19/10C5C5 @ Greyville 05/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Greyville 28/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 5f103y Sft 129 · HIGHER CLASS28/12C5C5 @ Scottsville 25/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 5f212y GS 129 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Scottsville 18/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 5f212y GS 129 · HIGHER CLASS18/02C5C1 @ Scottsville 26/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR - · 5f212y Sft 122 · HIGHER CLASS3 @ Scottsville 17/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASS17/053C0 @ Greyville 20/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 5f212y Std 127C5 @ Scottsville 29/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS29/07C5projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-29Scottsville?2nd1st+1
2026-06-20Greyville?7th7th0
2026-05-17Scottsville32nd0th+2
2026-04-26Scottsville?11th6th+5
2026-02-18Scottsville?1st0th+1
2026-01-25Scottsville?2nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/1025/0117/0529/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -7.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/10/20251st12/137%100%+0.63
05/12/20254th20/10%70%+0.70
28/12/20252nd4/179%86%+0.07
25/01/20262nd7/163%91%+0.28
18/02/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
26/04/202611th25/10%0%0.00
17/05/20262nd14/126%83%+0.57
20/06/20267th11/486%33%-0.52
29/07/20262nd17/255%88%+0.32