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3

Tina Lovelace

4yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 67

Turffontein · www.tab.co.za Fm 98 Divided Handicap (F & M) · 5f 212y

#8

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner. Fourteen runs since last win in 2025. 7½ lengths seventh of 9 to Keukenhof in Gr 3 at Greyville (7f, good, 10/1). Off 6 months. Difficult ask.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼4
Strength100%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.5
Today:
Class gap: +3.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Greyville 27/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 7f210y GS 132 · HIGHER CLASS27/07C?C0 @ Vaal 23/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 7f46y Gd 121C0 @ Turffontein 16/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 11716/12C?C5 @ Vaal 23/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 7f46y Gd 130C1 @ Turffontein 11/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 6f211y GS 128 · HIGHER CLASS11/01C1C0 @ Turffontein 01/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 5f169y Gd 118C0 @ Turffontein 07/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS7/02C?C0 @ Turffontein 07/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 1m209y GS 132 · HIGHER CLASSC1 @ Greyville 27/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 119 · HIGHER CLASS27/03C1projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-03-27Greyville?7th2nd+5
2026-03-07Turffontein?9th3rd+5
2026-02-07Turffontein?9th3rd+5
2026-02-01Turffontein?4th4th0
2026-01-11Turffontein?6th1st+4
2025-12-23Vaal?8th8th−0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0723/127/0227/03
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength83%

Delivery trend -0.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/07/20252nd22/10%90%+0.90
23/10/20254th10/1195%40%-0.55
16/12/20256th12/137%29%-0.08
23/12/20258th17/255%13%-0.43
11/01/20266th28/10%29%+0.29
01/02/20264th25/10%63%+0.63
07/02/20269th33/10%38%+0.38
07/03/20269th80/10%11%+0.11
27/03/20267th10/147%25%-0.22