9
Irish Wilma
3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 37
Turffontein · Next Turffontein Racemeeting Saturday 3 October Fm 81 Divided Handicap (F & M) · 5f 212y
#4
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Turffontein | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-07-16 | Turffontein | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-14 | Turffontein | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-04-12 | Turffontein | ? | 2nd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-02-26 | Turffontein | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-01-29 | Vaal | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 9-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/01/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 26/02/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 12/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 14/06/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 45% | -0.02 |
| 16/07/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 16/08/2026 | 10th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |