1
Matcha Mint
4yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 72
Turffontein · Next Turffontein Racemeeting Saturday 3 October Fm 81 Divided Handicap (F & M) · 5f 212y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
31%
Place Prob
38%
Rank
#1
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-11 | Turffontein | ? | 4th | 5th | −0 |
| 2025-08-17 | Turffontein | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-06-07 | Greyville | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-05-15 | Vaal | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-04-27 | Turffontein | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-04-12 | Turffontein | ? | 3rd | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength43%
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/2025 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 60% | +0.05 |
| 27/04/2025 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 15/05/2025 | 2nd | 8/13 | 97% | 80% | -0.17 |
| 07/06/2025 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 89% | -0.05 |
| 17/08/2025 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 11/10/2025 | 4th | 5/6 | 96% | 57% | -0.38 |