8
Homard Land
9yo Gelding · 0-0
Vincennes · Grand Prix Du Portugal (ovidius Naso) - Attele · 1m 5f 92y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Vincennes | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Saint-Malo | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Enghien | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Vincennes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Vincennes | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Vincennes | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 15100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/11/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 16/12/2025 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 92% | +0.37 |
| 24/01/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 28/02/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 27/03/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 21/06/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 58% | -0.23 |
| 22/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 05/08/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 12/09/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |