12
Heraklion Desbois
9yo Gelding · 10-3
Vincennes · Prix D'arles - Monte · 1m 2f 178y
#12
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Vincennes | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Laval | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Vincennes | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Enghien | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Enghien | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Enghien | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength36%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 29/05/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 05/06/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 27/06/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 53% | +0.48 |
| 11/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 73% | -0.03 |
| 12/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 93% | +0.30 |
| 24/08/2026 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 44% | +0.02 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 100/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 11/09/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |