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5

Lisbeth Dry

5yo Filly · 0-0

Vincennes · Prix De Tours - Attele · 1m 6f 36y

#1

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

95%

Place Prob

69%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength9%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Vincennes 04/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR - · 1m6f36y Std 04/12C?5 @ Vincennes 29/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR - · 1m5f92y Std 0C0 @ Vincennes 11/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 1m5f92y Std 011/02C?5 @ Vincennes 27/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR - · 1m5f92y Std 0C0 @ Vincennes 13/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR - · 1m2f96y Std 013/05C?4 @ Vincennes 12/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 1m2f96y Std 05 @ Enghien 25/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 1m6f64y Std 025/075C0 @ Enghien 02/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR - · 1m2f151y Std 04 @ Vincennes 29/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 1m2f96y Std 029/084projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Vincennes41st1st0
2026-08-10Enghien?0
2026-08-02Enghien?4th4th0
2026-07-25Enghien51st1st0
2026-06-12Vincennes48th8th0
2026-05-13Vincennes?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/1227/0225/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.8% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/12/20258th9/276%53%-0.23
29/01/20268th10/147%53%+0.06
11/02/20262nd3/184%88%+0.03
27/02/20263rd4/179%86%+0.07
13/05/20263rd20/10%85%+0.85
12/06/20268th28/10%46%+0.46
25/07/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
02/08/20264th11/486%77%-0.09
29/08/20261st14/126%100%+0.74