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7

Fearless Soldier

6yo Horse · 8-11 · OR 99

Woodbine · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f

#6

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength60%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Turf Paradise 22/03/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 1m Fm 11822/03C?C6 @ Turf Paradise 02/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 103 · 1m Fas 122 · beat its mark02/04/2025 · OR 103 parC6 @ Canterbury Park 01/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 106 · 1m Fm 124 · below its mark01/06/2025 · OR 106 par1/06C6OR 106C5 @ Canterbury Park 28/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 109 · 1m Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/06/2025 · OR 109 parC5 @ Assiniboia Downs 15/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 109 · 7f110y Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/07/2025 · OR 109 par15/07C5OR 109C5 @ Assiniboia Downs 05/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 105 · 1m 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/08/2025 · OR 105 parC6 @ Canterbury Park 22/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 104 · 1m Fas 122 · below its mark22/08/2025 · OR 104 par22/08C6OR 104C6 @ Canterbury Park 30/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 104 · 1m Fm 122 · beat its mark30/08/2025 · OR 104 parC5 @ Hawthorne 28/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 105 · 1m Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/09/2025 · OR 105 par28/09C5OR 105projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-09-28Hawthorne?9th8th+1
2025-08-30Canterbury Park?1st1st0
2025-08-22Canterbury Park?4th4th0
2025-08-05Assiniboia Downs?4th3rd+1
2025-07-15Assiniboia Downs?3rd2nd+1
2025-06-28Canterbury Park?2nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0328/0622/0828/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength5%

Delivery trend -2.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/03/20255th16/116%33%+0.18
02/04/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
01/06/20253rd11/271%60%-0.11
28/06/20252nd4/179%80%+0.01
15/07/20253rd11/893%78%-0.15
05/08/20254th7/282%70%-0.12
22/08/20254th9/276%0%-0.76
30/08/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
28/09/20259th20/10%20%+0.20