Set
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 105
Woodbine · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-30 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-24 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-06-22 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-09-01 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2024-07-14 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 0th | +5 |
| 2024-05-31 | Penn National | ? | 5th | -1th | +5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/02/2024 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 30/03/2024 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 04/05/2024 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 15% | -0.21 |
| 31/05/2024 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 14/07/2024 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 01/09/2024 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 22/06/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 24/07/2025 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 30/08/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |