Au Contraire
4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 24
Woodbine · Race 3 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 8.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Woodbine | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2024-10-23 | Keeneland | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2024-09-21 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09/2024 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/10/2024 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 05/06/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 17% | -0.66 |
| 02/08/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 16/08/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |