3
Tony From Angus
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 82
Woodbine · Race 3 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
37%
Place Prob
31%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-03 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-07-11 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength31%
Delivery trend -10.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 88% | +0.27 |
| 03/08/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 14/06/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 26/07/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 43% | -0.40 |
| 23/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 60% | -0.32 |