Spa Prospector
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 85
Woodbine · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#7
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-06 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 03/08/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 03/10/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 06/11/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 02/04/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 28/05/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 07/09/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |