6
Naptown
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 108
Woodbine · Race 5 - Grand Valley Stakes · 1m 1f
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Colonial Downs | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 7-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -11.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |
| 21/12/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 21/03/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 18/04/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 30% | -0.23 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |
| 13/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 27/06/2026 | 10th | 13/2 | 66% | 10% | -0.56 |
| 23/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 06/09/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |