3
Episode
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 77
Woodbine · Race 6 - Optional Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-11-23 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-10-12 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength48%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 19/07/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 31/08/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 20/09/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 12/10/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 23/11/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 40% | -0.47 |
| 29/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 27/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |