5
Surfside Beach
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 75
Woodbine · Race 6 - Optional Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-10 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength77%
Delivery trend +16.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 10/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 06/09/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |