Breaking Alone
8yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 101
Woodbine · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 2f
#11
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-08-10 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-19 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-06-01 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-03-22 | Fair Grounds | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/01/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 08/02/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 04/03/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 22/03/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/06/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 19/07/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 90% | +0.16 |
| 10/08/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 04/10/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 44% | -0.16 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |