Carnew
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 95
Woodbine · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-08-09 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-26 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +9.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2024 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 36% | -0.16 |
| 07/11/2024 | 4th | 10/11 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |
| 29/11/2024 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 26/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 30/11/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 15/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 07/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 09/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 30/08/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |