8
Countryboysurvive
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 94
Woodbine · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-12 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-13 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-24 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength40%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 26/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 22/11/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 13/12/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 24/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 16/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 11/09/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |