4
El Capo
3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 94
Woodbine · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Fair Grounds | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-01-17 | Fair Grounds | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength69%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 26/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 22/11/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 17/01/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 07/03/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 26/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 24/05/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 30/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |