3
Shadow Realm
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 99
Woodbine · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Woodbine | ? | 10th | 12th | −2 |
| 2025-11-15 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-10-19 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-08-24 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength37%
Delivery trend -6.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 27/07/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 15/08/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 24/08/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 19/10/2025 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 14% | -0.68 |
| 15/11/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 17/05/2026 | 10th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 57% | -0.31 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |