5
Buium
3yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 91
Woodbine · Race 9 - Breeders' Stakes · 1m 4f
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-05 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-06-14 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-05-24 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-11-29 | Woodbine | BHA82 | 8th | 12th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength91%
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 71% | -0.18 |
| 05/10/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 02/11/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 29/11/2025 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 13% | -0.48 |
| 24/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 90% | +0.29 |
| 14/06/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 05/07/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 78% | -0.12 |
| 26/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 89% | +0.03 |
| 07/09/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |