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3

Fire And Wine

3yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 88

Woodbine · Race 9 - Breeders' Stakes · 1m 4f

#5

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength3%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Woodbine 16/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 70 · 7f Fm 118 · below its mark16/08/2025 · OR 70 par16/08C6OR 70C7 @ Woodbine 07/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 71 · 7f 118 · below its mark07/09/2025 · OR 71 parC7 @ Woodbine 28/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 75 · 1m Fm 118 · below its mark28/09/2025 · OR 75 par28/09C7OR 75C7 @ Woodbine 19/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 77 · 1m70y Fas 118 · beat its mark19/10/2025 · OR 77 parBHA77 @ Woodbine 29/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 77 · 1m1f Fas 122 · beat its mark29/11/2025 · OR 77 par29/1177OR 77C5 @ Woodbine 17/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 83 · 7f 122 · below its mark17/05/2026 · OR 83 parC5 @ Woodbine 19/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 75 · 1m1f 126 · below its mark19/07/2026 · OR 75 par19/07C5OR 75C5 @ Woodbine 15/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 74 · 1m2f Fas 126 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 74 parC5 @ Fort Erie 07/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 81 · 1m1f110y Fas 126 · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 81 par7/09C5OR 81projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Fort Erie?5th5th0
2026-08-15Woodbine?3rd3rd0
2026-07-19Woodbine?8th8th0
2026-05-17Woodbine?6th6th0
2025-11-29WoodbineBHA771st5th−3
2025-10-19Woodbine?1st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0819/1019/077/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength70%

Delivery trend +1.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/08/20257th33/10%14%+0.14
07/09/20253rd7/163%75%+0.12
28/09/20253rd11/486%50%-0.36
19/10/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
29/11/20251st12/137%100%+0.63
17/05/20266th9/153%17%-0.36
19/07/20268th33/10%30%+0.30
15/08/20263rd50/10%82%+0.82
07/09/20265th11/271%43%-0.28