4
Katie's Grace
3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 97
Woodbine · Race 9 - Breeders' Stakes · 1m 4f
#1
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
92%
Place Prob
67%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Woodbine | BHA94 | 4th | 10th | −5 |
| 2026-06-06 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 02/11/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 29/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 03/05/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 19/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 06/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |