14:30 · Kelso

NSPCC School Service Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m 1f 14yGoing TBCClass 24YO plusTURFHandicap6 runners
Ordered by projected finish
1
Top Pick1
OR 144
7/1
Tommy's Oscar silks

Mr Ian Hamilton

11yo Gelding · 12-0

Oscar - Glibin (Luso)

Danny McMenamin70%10/30Mrs A Hamilton60%
542142
8.0Class ↓2
Cheek pieces

Has fine record in this race, winning it in 2023 and placed in both the last 2 renewals, though isn't as quick as he once was and tends to need further these days, as evidenced by his win over an extended 3m at Carlisle last season. Goes well fresh but others preferred for win purposes.

Class Advantage

7/12 · C2 · finish vs mark below7/12 · mark par7/121/01 · C2 · finish vs mark below1/01 · mark par31/01 · C2 · finish vs mark below31/01 · mark par8/03 · C2 · finish vs mark above8/03 · mark par15/04 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below15/04 · mark par23/04 · C2 · finish vs mark below23/04 · mark par23/04projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 1f 14y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 50%7/12Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 63%Pos 2 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 2 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 86%31/01Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 100%Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 70%15/04Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 83%23/04
Projected finish1st of 6
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
100%1-283/100
2
2
OR 139
3/1
Breaking Cover silks

Cartwright, Langford And Saunders

8yo Gelding · 11-9

Getaway - Peace And The City (Elusive City)

Chad Bament60%2/2−5lbA J Honeyball
264411
8.0Going 10.0
Tongue strap

Useful chaser who boasts an impressive strike rate despite being prone to mistakes over fences and arrives on a hat-trick after winning handicaps at Newton Abbot in August and Stratford in September. Up another 4 lb and faces sterner opposition here, though.

Class Advantage

8/11 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below8/11 · mark par8/1115/11 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below15/11 · mark par28/06 · C2 · finish vs mark below28/06 · mark par19/07 · C2 · finish vs mark below19/07 · mark par27/08 · C2 · finish vs mark above27/08 · mark par5/09 · C3 · finish vs mark above5/09 · mark par5/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength25%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 1f 14y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 75%8/11Pos 6 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 40%28/06Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 25%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 100%27/08Pos 1 · SP 1/1 | Expected: 95%Pos 1 · SP 1/1 | Actual: 100%5/09
Projected finish2nd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength77%
ExpectedActualTrend
80%1-464/100
6
Market Fav3
OR 127
13/8
Ice Jet silks

Chris And May Mullin

4yo Gelding · 10-2

Phoenix Of Spain - Star Jet (Teofilo)

C J Todd60%D Skelton60%
112V21
8.0
Tongue strap

Defied a double penalty to land a 10-day hurdles hat-trick in the spring and made it third time lucky over fences when landing 5-runner Uttoxeter handicap last time by 18 lengths from Bleu D'Enfer. Up 10 lb but fourth that day has won since and receives his 4-y-o allowance. The one to beat.

Class Advantage

12/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above12/05 · mark par12/0519/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above19/05 · mark par22/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above22/05 · mark par7/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below7/07 · mark par22/08 · C3 · finish vs mark below22/08 · mark par15/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above15/09 · mark par15/09projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲2
Strength10%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 1f 14y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 6/5 | Expected: 94%Pos 1 · SP 6/5 | Actual: 100%12/05Pos 1 · SP 30/100 | Expected: 98%Pos 1 · SP 30/100 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 4/9 | Expected: 98%Pos 1 · SP 4/9 | Actual: 100%22/05Pos 2 · SP 5/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 2 · SP 5/6 | Actual: 86%Pos 2 · SP 4/5 | Expected: 96%Pos 2 · SP 4/5 | Actual: 67%22/08Pos 1 · SP 1/1 | Expected: 95%Pos 1 · SP 1/1 | Actual: 100%15/09
Projected finish3rd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength86%
ExpectedActualTrend
60%1-374/100
4
5
OR 131
5/1
Primoz silks

Aim Equestrian Ltd & Russell

8yo Gelding · 11-1

Westerner - Be Mine Tonight (Carroll House)

D R Fox70%4/13L Russell & M Scudamore
35631B
7.0
Tongue strap

Bounced back to winning ways with a comfortable success in 6-runner handicap at Ayr in March and was just starting to struggle when wiped out at the Canal Turn in the Topham Chase at Aintree when last seen in April. Has won over C&D before but is no battler and this looks too competitive.

Class Advantage

17/09 · C3 · finish vs mark below17/09 · mark par17/0915/10 · C3 · finish vs mark below15/10 · mark par15/11 · C3 · finish vs mark below15/11 · mark par20/12 · C3 · finish vs mark below20/12 · mark par21/02 · C3 · finish vs mark below21/02 · mark par7/03 · C3 · finish vs mark above7/03 · mark par7/03projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 1f 14y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 2 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 80%17/09Pos 3 · SP 4/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 3 · SP 4/6 | Actual: 33%Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 20%15/11Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 29%Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 67%21/02Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 100%7/03
Projected finish4th of 6
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▲
Strength75%
ExpectedActualTrend
40%1-464/100
3
4
OR 133
7/1
Traprain Law silks

Mr Raymond Anderson Green

8yo Gelding · 11-3

Martaline - Pina (Kapgarde)

P W Wadge60%6/21L Russell & M Scudamore
242133
8.0Class ↓1
Tongue strap

Runner-up in this race last year from a 1 lb lower mark and later successful at Wetherby during a consistent spell. Returns with the yard in good form and should be thereabouts.

Class Advantage

5/10 · C2 · finish vs mark below5/10 · mark par5/1024/10 · C2 · finish vs mark below24/10 · mark par7/12 · C2 · finish vs mark below7/12 · mark par27/12 · C2 · finish vs mark above27/12 · mark par31/01 · C2 · finish vs mark below31/01 · mark par18/04 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below18/04 · mark par18/04projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength4%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 1f 14y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 75%5/10Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 63%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 88%7/12Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 3 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 3 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 71%31/01Pos 3 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 3 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 67%18/04
Projected finish5th of 6
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength42%
ExpectedActualTrend
20%3-574/100
5
6
OR 123
12/1
Aeros Luck silks

Mr Raymond Anderson Green

7yo Gelding · 10-7

My Dream Boat - Sapere Aude (Broadway Flyer)

Mr Lucas Murphy60%−7lbA M Thomson60%
562233
6.0
Tongue strap

Handicap chase winner at Punchestown for Gavin Cromwell last summer. Gradually found his form for current yard, placing on 4 occasions, and shaped better than the result when 11¾ lengths third of 7 to Heltenham at Perth last time after mistake 3 out. Had a breathing operation ahead of return.

Class Advantage

25/10 · C3 · finish vs mark below25/10 · mark par25/107/12 · C2 · finish vs mark below7/12 · mark par29/12 · C3 · finish vs mark below29/12 · mark par1/02 · C3 · finish vs mark below1/02 · mark par28/02 · C3 · finish vs mark below28/02 · mark par22/04 · C3 · finish vs mark below22/04 · mark par22/04projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength5%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 1f 14y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 0%25/10Pos 6 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 38%Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 50%29/12Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 75%Pos 3 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 3 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 71%28/02Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 67%22/04
Projected finish6th of 6
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength47%
ExpectedActualTrend
0%2-564/100