14:15 · Uttoxeter

F Ball Established 1886 Handicap Hurdle

2m 7f 70yGoing TBCClass 34YO plusTURFHandicap6 runners
Ordered by projected finish
2
Top Pick1
OR 126
11/4
Ernest Gray silks

Mr Andy Peake

9yo Gelding · 11-13

Walk In The Park - Emily Gray (Flemensfirth)

Tom Cannon60%3/16A King70%
166421
7.0Class ↓3
Cheek pieces

Consistent sort. Proved at least as good as ever when recording a fourth career handicap hurdle success at Bangor (23f) last time, typically finding plenty for pressure. Looks capable of defying a career-high mark in his current vein of form.

Class Advantage

26/10 · C3 · finish vs mark above26/10 · mark par26/1020/12 · C3 · finish vs mark below20/12 · mark par4/04 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below4/04 · mark par7/07 · C3 · finish vs mark below7/07 · mark par15/08 · C4 · finish vs mark below15/08 · mark par4/09 · C3 · finish vs mark above4/09 · mark par4/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength13%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 7f 70y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 1 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 100%26/10Pos 6 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 6 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 38%Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 38%4/04Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 70%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 80%15/08Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 100%4/09
Projected finish1st of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength82%
ExpectedActualTrend
100%1-464/100
4
Market Fav2
OR 120
5/2
Jubilant silks

Mr & Mrs R Sage

7yo Gelding · 11-7

Doctor Dino - A Merveille (Network)

J J Burke60%2/3James Owen
3516P1
7.0Going 10.0

Fairly useful sort. Capped a fine 12 months (including 3 chase wins) when comfortably justifying support in a 5-runner handicap hurdle at Plumpton (3¼m) in May. Returns only 1 lb above his highest winning mark over fences and no surprise if excellent yard eke a bit more out of him.

Class Advantage

23/09 · C4 · finish vs mark below23/09 · mark par23/0919/10 · C4 · finish vs mark below19/10 · mark par21/11 · C4 · finish vs mark below21/11 · mark par15/12 · C4 · finish vs mark above15/12 · mark par8/03 · C3 · finish vs mark below8/03 · mark par26/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above26/05 · mark par26/05projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 7f 70y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 3 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 60%23/09Pos 3 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 60%Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 50%21/11Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 6 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 6 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 29%8/03Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 100%26/05
Projected finish2nd of 6
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength84%
ExpectedActualTrend
80%1-374/100
5
4
OR 119
10/3
Miss Goldfire silks

Harry Fry Racing Syndicate Miss Goldfi

7yo Mare · 11-6

Yeats - Miss Mcgoldrick (Kasakov)

C P O'Shea60%4/10−7lbH Fry
6P1U12
9.0
Tongue strap

Won juvenile handicap/runner-up to a subsequent winner on previous 2 C&D starts. An improved model as a 7-y-o this season. Hard held completing a double at Newton Abbot and only beaten by an unexposed stayer played later over C&D last time. Needs more again off another career-high mark, though.

Class Advantage

25/10 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below25/10 · mark par25/1022/11 · C4 · finish vs mark below22/11 · mark par16/12 · C4 · finish vs mark below16/12 · mark par6/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above6/05 · mark par3/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above3/06 · mark par28/06 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above28/06 · mark par28/06projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength4%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 7f 70y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 8 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 42%25/10Pos 8 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 8 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 13%Pos 6 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 6 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 38%16/12Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 100%3/06Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 89%28/06
Projected finish3rd of 6
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength93%
ExpectedActualTrend
60%1-374/100
3
3
OR 121
7/2
Roger Pol silks

Cobbold Allen Ogilvy Shaw Morley

8yo Gelding · 11-8

Shantou - Laren (Monsun)

Isabelle Ryder60%2/8−5lbJamie Snowden80%
176982
5.0Class ↓2
1st Blinkers +3Tongue strap

Won this corresponding event last year (race fell apart) prior to completing a double at Hexham. First-time blinkers/switch to front running saw him emerge from the doldrums when 3¼-length second to Ernest Gray at Bangor latest. Thereabouts if headgear continues to have a positive effect.

Class Advantage

11/10 · C3 · finish vs mark above11/10 · mark par11/1019/04 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below19/04 · mark par25/05 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below25/05 · mark par7/07 · C3 · finish vs mark below7/07 · mark par26/07 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below26/07 · mark par4/09 · C3 · finish vs mark below4/09 · mark par4/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength32%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 7f 70y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 1/1 | Expected: 95%Pos 1 · SP 1/1 | Actual: 100%11/10Pos 7 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 7 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 33%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 38%25/05Pos 9 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 9 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 20%Pos 8 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 8 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 13%26/07Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 75%4/09
Projected finish4th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength65%
ExpectedActualTrend
40%2-383/100
1
5
OR 127
10/1
Divilabother silks

Mr R Nichol

8yo Gelding · 12-0

Markaz - Rockabout (Rock Of Gibraltar)

Harry Reed60%4/11T Davidson
111215
7.0
Tongue strap

Strong traveller who progressed to win 5 times between June-August (including hat-trick success over C&D), his only defeat in that spell when splitting a couple of future winners here. Still in form when beaten 7½ lengths at Perth but he may just be vulnerable to a stronger stayer on these terms.

Class Advantage

13/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above13/06 · mark par13/0628/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above28/06 · mark par24/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above24/07 · mark par26/07 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above26/07 · mark par31/08 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above31/08 · mark par24/09 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below24/09 · mark par24/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength48%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 7f 70y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%13/06Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 100%24/07Pos 2 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 2 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 88%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%31/08Pos 5 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 5 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 60%24/09
Projected finish5th of 6
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength67%
ExpectedActualTrend
20%1-464/100
6
6
OR 110
25/1
Pike Road silks

Mr Roger Harrison

7yo Gelding · 10-11

Yeats - Ile De See (Saint Des Saints)

Freddie Keighley60%2/12−5lbM Keighley60%
642778
4.0
Cheek pieces

Doubled his hurdles tally under a positive ride over C&D in November prior to a solid fourth at Cheltenham. Probably in better heart than recent form figures suggest, too, never involved under contrasting tactics here last time. Not discounted if he gets into a rhythm.

Class Advantage

2/02 · C4 · finish vs mark below2/02 · mark par2/025/05 · C4 · finish vs mark below5/05 · mark par6/06 · C4 · finish vs mark below6/06 · mark par1/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below1/07 · mark par26/07 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below26/07 · mark par15/09 · C4 · finish vs mark below15/09 · mark par15/09projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 7f 70y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 6 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 38%2/02Pos 4 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 4 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 50%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 90%6/06Pos 7 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 7 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 40%Pos 7 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 7 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 25%26/07Pos 8 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 8 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 0%15/09
Projected finish6th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
0%6-690/100