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12:50 · Musselburgh

Champagne Pommery Brut Rose Handicap

1m 208yGoing TBCClass 64YO plusTURFHandicap7 runners
Ordered by projected finish
1
Top Pick1
OR 584/1
Falcon Nine silks

Ursa Major Racing & I Jardine

Falcon Nine

6yo Gelding · 9-9

Ulysses - Freedonia (Selkirk)

K Shoemark60%0/4I Jardine60%
724922
7.0
Blinkers

Recorded back-to-back wins last summer, including this same race. Has returned to form with runner-up efforts at Ayr the last twice, finishing clear of the rest on his latest outing 11 days ago. Not taken lightly.

Class Advantage

21/05 · C6 · finish vs mark below21/05 · mark par21/058/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above8/06 · mark par17/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above17/06 · mark par6/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above6/07 · mark par20/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above20/07 · mark par27/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above27/07 · mark par27/07projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 208y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 0%21/05Pos 2 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 2 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 90%Pos 4 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 4 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 40%17/06Pos 9 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 27%Pos 2 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 2 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 89%20/07Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 88%27/07
Projected finish1st of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
4
Market Fav3
OR 532/1
Gemini Man silks

Mr G Gibson & Mr Jamie Denholm

Gemini Man

8yo Gelding · 9-4

Zoffany - Keystone Gulch (Gulch)

Jack Nicholls60%I Jardine
211P92
6.0Going 8.0

Has won 3 times on the Flat this year, the latest in handicap at this course (12.5f) in June. Ran poorly next 2 outings (bled on first occasion) but bounced back to form when runner-up over 13f here 7 days ago.

Class Advantage

23/02 · C6 · finish vs mark above23/02 · mark par23/0210/03 · C6 · finish vs mark above10/03 · mark par2/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above2/06 · mark par22/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above22/06 · mark par25/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par31/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above31/07 · mark par31/07projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength43%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 208y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 100%23/02Pos 2 · SP 10/11 | Expected: 95%Pos 2 · SP 10/11 | Actual: 83%Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 100%2/06Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 100%Pos 9 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 9 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 33%25/07Pos 2 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 2 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 88%31/07
Projected finish2nd of 7
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength68%
ExpectedActualTrend
2
Value2
OR 5325/1
Samra Star silks

The Hon Heather Galbraith & C Maxwell

Samra Star

5yo Mare · 9-9

Magna Grecia - Bint Samraan (Shamardal)

P Mulrennan60%Miss L A Perratt
643821
8.0Class ↓3
Hood

Successful at Wolverhampton in February and built on her runner-up effort over this C&D in May when gaining a first turf win at Ayr (1m) 11 days ago. Did well to overcome a pace bias last time, so she could be thereabouts under a penalty.

Class Advantage

4/03 · C6 · finish vs mark below4/03 · mark par4/0310/03 · C6 · finish vs mark above10/03 · mark par23/03 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above23/03 · mark par26/04 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above26/04 · mark par21/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above21/05 · mark par27/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above27/07 · mark par27/07projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength70%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 208y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 29%4/03Pos 4 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 4 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 63%Pos 3 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 3 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 50%23/03Pos 8 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 36%Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 83%21/05Pos 1 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 1 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 100%27/07
Projected finish3rd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength55%
ExpectedActualTrend
5
4
OR 5215/2
Miners Gamble silks

Chris Lowther And Friends

Miners Gamble

5yo Gelding · 9-3

Tamayuz - Adeste (Dansili)

L Morris70%B Ellison60%
596805
3.0Class ↓3
1st Tongue Strap +2

On the back of a breathing operation, shaped encouragingly when 1¼ lengths fifth of 12 in handicap at Newcastle (1m) 13 days ago, caught further back than ideal. Could be ready to take advantage of his reduced mark back at the scene of his previous win, with tongue strap added.

Class Advantage

11/01 · C6 · finish vs mark above11/01 · mark par11/0117/01 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above17/01 · mark par5/03 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above5/03 · mark par28/03 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above28/03 · mark par26/06 · C6 · finish vs mark below26/06 · mark par25/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par25/07projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength54%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 208y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 5 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 43%11/01Pos 9 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 9 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 27%Pos 6 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 6 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 44%5/03Pos 8 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 8 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 46%Pos 13 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 13 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 0%26/06Pos 5 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 5 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 64%25/07
Projected finish4th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength26%
ExpectedActualTrend
7
7
OR 4533/1
Liberty Looming silks

Molly And Paul Willis

Liberty Looming

5yo Gelding · 8-10

Teofilo - Irish Question (Giant's Causeway)

J P Sullivan60%A Nicol60%
840406
4.0
Cheek pieces

Long-standing maiden who was pulled up over hurdles at Southwell in May on seasonal/stable debut. Didn't offer much promise back on the Flat when sixth of 9 in handicap here (13f) 7 days ago.

Class Advantage

10/02 · C6 · finish vs mark above10/02 · mark par10/0211/03 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a25/03 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a9/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a11/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above11/05 · mark par31/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above31/07 · mark par31/07projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength84%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 208y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 10 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 10%10/02Pos 4 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 5 · SP 150/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 150/1 | Actual: 0%25/03Pos 5 · SP 200/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 200/1 | Actual: 33%Pos 4 · SP 150/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 150/1 | Actual: 57%11/05Pos 6 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 38%31/07
Projected finish5th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength58%
ExpectedActualTrend
3
6
OR 555/1
Toy Soldier silks

Miss Lucinda V Russell

Toy Soldier

4yo Gelding · 9-6

Soldier's Call - Royal Highness (Dream Ahead)

Lexie Clarkson60%0/1−7lbL Russell & M Scudamore60%
042268
4.0Class ↓4
Blinkers

Showed fair form in handicaps in Ireland, runner-up at around 7f both starts in June. Making first run since leaving Maurice Ahern, never involved when eighth of 10 at Ayr (1¼m) 18 days ago, but he's on a workable mark with blinkers now back on.

Class Advantage

15/03 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark above15/03 · mark par15/0312/05 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above12/05 · mark par19/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above19/06 · mark par30/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above30/06 · mark par5/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above5/07 · mark par20/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above20/07 · mark par20/07projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength75%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 208y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 13 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 13 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 52%15/03Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 79%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 90%19/06Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 93%Pos 6 · SP 5/4 | Expected: 93%Pos 6 · SP 5/4 | Actual: 50%5/07Pos 8 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 8 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 22%20/07
Projected finish6th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength39%
ExpectedActualTrend
6
5
OR 5112/1
Approaching Dawn silks

D P Van Der Hoeven & D G Pryde

Approaching Dawn

6yo Gelding · 9-2

Dawn Approach - Taispeantas (Chevalier)

Lauren Young2/7−5lbJ S Goldie60%
193418
6.0

Regular slow starter who got off the mark in handicap here (1m) in June. Doubled his tally in minor event at Ayr last month, but wasn't in the same form in race won by Samra Star back at Ayr 11 days ago. Needs things to drop right.

Class Advantage

6/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above6/06 · mark par6/0619/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above19/06 · mark par22/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above22/06 · mark par30/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above30/06 · mark par5/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above5/07 · mark par27/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above27/07 · mark par27/07projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 208y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 1 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 100%6/06Pos 9 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 9 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 67%22/06Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 100%5/07Pos 8 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 8 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 13%27/07
Projected finish7th of 7
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength15%
ExpectedActualTrend