2
Evenly Alert
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 85
Belmont Park · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-11 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 5-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength45%
Delivery trend -5.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 23/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 02/09/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |