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15:18 · Listowel

Kinisla Kerrymaid Rated Novice Chase

2m 1f 150yGood (Good to Yielding in Places)4YO plusTURF5 runners
Ordered by projected finish
3
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 130
7/4
Ocastle Des Mottes silks

Simon Munir & Isaac Souede

Ocastle Des Mottes

7yo Gelding · 11-7

Castle Du Berlais - Oktavia Des Mottes (Lando)

Paul Townend60%1/3W P Mullins60%
254P21
6.0Class ↓7

Opened his account over fences in a 2¼m maiden at Galway earlier this month, beating Mongibello by 2¾ lengths having again kept mistakes to a minimum. Respected but his jumping will need to hold up again if he is to play a hand in the finish.

Class Advantage

4/05 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below4/05 · mark par4/0523/11 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a23/01 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a5/04 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a31/07 · C13 · finish vs mark below31/07 · mark par7/09 · C13 · finish vs mark above7/09 · mark par7/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 5
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲5
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good (Good to Yielding in Places) · 33%Dist: 2m 1f 150y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 19 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 19 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 18%4/05Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 91%Pos 5 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 5 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 69%23/01Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 50%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 88%31/07Pos 1 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 100%7/09
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength98%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -1.3%Ahead 3/4
1
2
3/1
Apple's Of Bresil silks

Tim O'Driscoll & Barry Connell

Apple's Of Bresil

8yo Gelding · 11-7

Blue Bresil - Take A Chance (Take Risks)

Sean Flanagan60%1/3B Connell
431201
7.0Going 8.0
Tongue strap

A bumper and maiden hurdle winner in 2024 who has been seen only twice since but looked a potential graded performer when defying a 12-month absence to make a winning chase debut at Kilbeggan by 10 lengths. Open to further improvement after another break.

Class Advantage

3/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a3/089/09 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a5/10 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a30/11 · C8 · finish vs mark below30/11 · mark par26/05 · C12 · finish vs mark below26/05 · mark par31/05 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a31/05projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good (Good to Yielding in Places) · 50%Dist: 2m 1f 150y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 16/5 | Expected: 83%Pos 4 · SP 16/5 | Actual: 84%3/08Pos 3 · SP 11/10 | Expected: 94%Pos 3 · SP 11/10 | Actual: 89%Pos 1 · SP 4/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 1 · SP 4/6 | Actual: 100%5/10Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 91%Pos 10 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 10 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 40%26/05Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 100%31/05
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength93%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +3.0%Ahead 3/4
2
3
4/1
Luker's Tipple silks

Gavin Cromwell Racing Limited

Luker's Tipple

5yo Gelding · 11-7

Starspangledbanner - High Regards (High Chaparral)

Keith Donoghue60%3/7G P Cromwell60%
341115
5.0Going 8.0Class ↓7

Quirky sort who belatedly got off the mark over hurdles in a course maiden and then quickly followed that up with a novice win at Sligo. Completed a quick-fire hat-trick on chasing debut at Tramore but could manage only fifth at Downpatrick on Friday.

Class Advantage

6/07 · C8 · finish vs mark below6/07 · mark par6/0714/07 · C8 · finish vs mark above14/07 · mark par6/08 · C8 · finish vs mark above6/08 · mark par13/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a21/08 · C8 · finish vs mark below21/08 · mark par18/09 · C8 · finish vs mark below18/09 · mark par18/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good (Good to Yielding in Places) · 100%Dist: 2m 1f 150y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 79%6/07Pos 1 · SP 5/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 1 · SP 5/6 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 100%6/08Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 100%Pos 10 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 10 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 0%21/08Pos 5 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 5 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 50%18/09
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength43%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -20.9%Ahead 2/4
4
4
OR 126
5/2
Sky Lord silks

Watchman Racing

Sky Lord

7yo Gelding · 11-7

Blue Bresil - Banjaxed Girl (King's Theatre)

Darragh O'Keeffe60%2/8H De Bromhead80%
433741
6.0Class ↓7
1st Cheekpieces +2Tongue strap

Has tended to finish weakly over fences but made the most of a good opportunity in first-time cheekpieces when landing a 6-runner maiden at Wexford in July by a distance after being left clear at the last. Talented enough to win this but questions remain regarding his resolve.

Class Advantage

13/12 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a13/1220/01 · C8 · finish vs mark below20/01 · mark par6/04 · C13 · finish vs mark below6/04 · mark par30/04 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below30/04 · mark par7/06 · C8 · finish vs mark below7/06 · mark par22/07 · C13 · finish vs mark above22/07 · mark par22/07projClass-projected finish: 4th of 5
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good (Good to Yielding in Places) · 50%Dist: 2m 1f 150y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 75%13/12Pos 3 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 3 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 67%Pos 3 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 3 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 60%6/04Pos 7 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 7 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 68%Pos 4 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 4 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 25%7/06Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 100%22/07
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength64%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -17.6%Ahead 2/4
5
5
12/1
Some Song silks

Michael Roden

Some Song

6yo Gelding · 11-2

Mahler - Some Sunset (Malinas)

Mike O'Connor60%H De Bromhead60%
11P6
5.0

Was fortunate when winning a maiden hurdle at Down Royal last season. Got back on track following a break when sixth on his handicap debut at Fairyhouse in April. Successful on his only start in points, and the market is likely to prove most informative now he is switched to chasing.

Class Advantage

31/10 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a31/105/04 · C8 · finish vs mark below5/04 · mark par5/04projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good (Good to Yielding in Places) · 33%Dist: 2m 1f 150y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%31/10Pos 6 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 6 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 74%5/04
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 3-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength39%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +14.5%Ahead 2/2