7

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2yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 81

Belmont Park · Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 12/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 1m Fm 12312/07C6C6 @ Saratoga 16/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 72 · 1m110y Fm 123 · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 72 par16/08C6OR 72projClass-projected finish: 1st of 2
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-16Saratoga?2nd2nd0
2026-07-12Saratoga?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0716/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 2-2 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength93%

Delivery trend -6.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/07/20265th14/126%56%+0.29
16/08/20262nd13/266%89%+0.23