Margarita Molly
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 71
Belmont Park · Race 3 - Starter Allowance · 7f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-07 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-05-14 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 22/09/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 06/11/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 26/12/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 14/05/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 05/06/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 07/08/2026 | 6th | 11/8 | 93% | 17% | -0.76 |
| 02/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |