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4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 76
Belmont Park · Race 3 - Starter Allowance · 7f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/2025 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 18/01/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 15/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 12/03/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 20% | -0.64 |
| 24/04/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 24/05/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 26/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |