9
Starship Lizzy
3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 63
Belmont Park · Race 3 - Starter Allowance · 7f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-02 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-11-23 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-10-17 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-09-12 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength70%
Delivery trend +15.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 17/10/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 23/11/2025 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 02/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 26/08/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |