Thirteen Red Flags
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 57
Belmont Park · Race 3 - Starter Allowance · 7f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-09-01 | Saratoga | ? | 11th | 9th | +2 |
| 2025-07-31 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-06-22 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-05-18 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 44% | -0.19 |
| 18/04/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 09/05/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 18/05/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/06/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 31/07/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 01/09/2025 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/08/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/08/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |