Big Gain
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 92
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
26%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-22 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-02-05 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2025-12-26 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 13/08/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 20/08/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 26/12/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 86% | +0.59 |
| 05/02/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 07/03/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 22/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 17/05/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 19/08/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 17% | -0.44 |