Conniving
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 85
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 7f
#10
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-26 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-12 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-06-28 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 21/03/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 19/04/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 08/06/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 78% | +0.62 |
| 12/07/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 14/06/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 26/07/2026 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 02/08/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 19/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |