2
Epitaph
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 82
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 11th | 8th | +3 |
| 2026-05-02 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength96%
Delivery trend +10.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 09/10/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 18/01/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 11/04/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 07/06/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 23/07/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 89% | +0.73 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |