Ghostwriter
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 74
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
53%
Place Prob
34%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 2.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-07-19 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-05-16 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 63% | -0.29 |
| 25/05/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 19/07/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 02/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 16/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |