The Toy Cannon
3yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 77
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-05-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-02-27 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-01-22 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2025 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 18% | -0.34 |
| 14/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 88% | -0.01 |
| 02/01/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 22/01/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |
| 27/02/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 10/04/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 03/07/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 18/07/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |