4
Cederberg
3yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 64
Belmont Park · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 14-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2025 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 30% | -0.46 |
| 26/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 31/07/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 17% | -0.49 |